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Predictive Policing

ProHIC

A problem-oriented approach to High Impact Crime

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The Problem

High Impact Crime (HIC) such as violent assault, robbery and burglary impact negatively on citizens and their communities. The impact on victims and wider society is huge.

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In the case of burglary, criminals intrude into a citizen's personal private space to steal valuables, causing fear and ongoing feelings of insecurity. A robbery may have a comparable impact resulting in post-traumatic stress.

Traditional approaches to High Impact Crime have tended to focus on police action alone, often using technological systems like Predictive Policing to analyse police data and local intelligence. However, a local, multi-stakeholder approach is more effective. While it may sound simple, working in partnership presents a number of challenges. Organisations with different interests, systems, cultures and resources must follow a common process to establish shared goals, identify and plan evidence-based responses to problems and act in a well-orchestrated manner to implement solutions. In addition, partnership working requires the sharing of data on safety and security.

The Tool

The ProHIC Tool enables stakeholders at a local level to more
effectively tackle High Impact Crime (HIC).

The Tool supports:

supports the police, municipalities, public prosecutor, citizens, businesses and other organisations to work together through the phases of the SARA problem-solving method (Scanning, Analysis, Response and Assessment) to reduce and prevent High Impact Crime.

The ProHIC Tool is used and issued on a national basis

its use is place and problem specific, focusing on one city or even one neighbourhood and on one or more types of High Impact Crime (HIC) such as burglary, assault, or robbery.

The ProHIC Tool is available in both Dutch and English

and provides advice and solutions proven to be effective in the fight against High Impact Crime.

Tool Components

01

The Book of Basics

  • (available as a hard copy and online) and a shorter Manual
02

Evidence-based crime prevention 'knowledge pearls'

  • From the Dutch National Ministry of Justice and Security
03

Promotional materials

  • A process flow chart, an infographic, a flyer, a poster and a short video explaining the Tool with both Dutch and English subtitles
04

Website

  • The Tool is freely available to download here, and on www.ProHIC.nl
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End-users

The ProHIC Tool is designed for use by:

The police

Municipalities

The public prosecutor’s office

Residents and other citizens

Local organisations and businesses

End-users from police, municipalities, "safety houses" (a Dutch multi-agency approach for complex cases), the police academy and the Ministry of Justice gave their feedback on Tool prototypes of the Book of Basics and the Manual. This feedback guided development of the final version of the Tool.

Timeline

March 2019 – September 2019

Requirements capture

September 2019

CCI DesignLab

October 2019 – January 2020

Tool direction identified

February 2020 – August 2021

Tool development & prototyping

September – December 2021

Tool demonstration

21 September 2021

National implementation workshop

3 November 2021

Local implementation workshop

December 2020 – ongoing

Implementation

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Research undertaken

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01

Observational research of working practices of a police information specialist and a police officer regarding use of Predictive Policing

02

Observational research of use of a specific geographical area relevant to the use of Predictive Policing data

03

Ten interviews with end-users from different disciplines, including the police, university, public prosecution, government and business.

Tool demonstration

An introductory workshop was held for the three Tool end-user groups: municipality; police; and Safety House North-Holland North (Veiligheidshuis Noord-Holland Noord).

The Safety House includes police, the municipality and the public prosecutor.

Tool demonstration was held on 8 November 2021, and was undertaken by seven end-users — two policymakers from the municipality and five police officers (including one from the Area HIC team). While originally planned for earlier in the year, demonstration workshops had to be postponed to later in 2021 due to the Covid-19 restrictions.

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Implementation

Tool implementation activities during the CCI project

  • A local implementation workshop was delivered on 3 November 2021, with support from Jaap de Waard from the Ministry of Justice in the Netherlands. The online workshop was attended by 38 police officers and staff from the local region of North Holland.
  • A series of training sessions were delivered to around 30 Masters students studying Criminology at Leiden University. Sessions were held on 21 September, 5 October and 16 November 2021, and also attended by six policymakers and six police officers.
  • The ProHIC website was launched in October 2020 to support wider dissemination of the Tool.
  • Researchers have endeavoured to engage future end-users in use of the Tool, with students currently studying at University and the Police Academy being taught to use ProHIC.

Tool implementation activities planned for the future

  • Training sessions will be delivered in two universities of applied sciences — Avans and InHolland — starting in 2022. The students will be studying to work within municipalities, private security industry, police, and public prosecutors.
  • Researchers are in discussione with the Police Academy in the Netherlands on implementation of the ProHIC Tool within officer training.
  • In 2022, a commercial training bureau (SBO) will begin regular delivery of training on High Impact Crime using the ProHIC approach.

Sources

01

Sherman, L.W., and Cambridge University associates (2020) "How to Count Crime: the Cambridge Harm Index Consensus". Cambridge Journal of Evidence Based Policing 4, pp. 1–14. Available here.

02

Stevens, D., (2021).What works to prevent domestic burglaries? European Crime Prevention Network: Brussels, Belgium. Available here.

03

Weisburd, D., Farrington, D. and Gill, C. (2017) "What Works in Crime Prevention and Rehabilitation: An Assessment of Systematic Reviews". Criminology & Public Policy, vol. 16, no. 2, May, pp. 415–449.

04

Zoe, M. and Gill, P. (2021) "Systematic review and meta-analysis of risk terrain modelling (RTM) as a spatial forecasting method". Crime Science, vol. 10, no. 12, 16 June, pp. 1–11, available here.

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Policy Implications

LEAs are increasingly expected to work in partnership to address everyday crimes that impact local citizens.

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Working together, police, local authorities and other key stakeholders have access to better data, knowledge, capacity and resources to effectively tackle high-impact crime.

Data sources and methods should support partners in understanding and addressing high-impact crime. However, technological methods for tackling crime have mainly focused on police data and intelligence, and its role in informing police action. For example, many Predictive Policing systems rely on police data to identify locations at risk of crime and to target police patrols.

ProHIC is a valuable Tool developed to support the National Police of the Netherlands and relevant stakeholders in understanding and addressing high impact crime.

Acknowledgements

Armando Jongejan

Marian Krom

Paul van Soomeren

Bram van Dijk

Jaap de Waard

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